RE:RE:Eric Nuttall tweet of the day !!!JD, I also looked into this but check my rough numbers...also I think he chart is based on Y/E 2023
My Assumptions Y/E 2022 Net Debt $800m
Y/E 2022 Share Out 525M
2023 FCF @ $100 and strip gas, and production $1.2B
My assumption 2023 distribution Debt $600m (full year 2023)
Buybacks $450m (full year)
Dividend $150m (2nd half 2023)
Y/E 2023 Net Debt 200M
Y/E 2023 Shares Out 450m
Now in theory (which would never happen assume stock price is still today pre-open $5.84*450m shares = 2.6B + 2023 YE net debt 200M = $2.8B
At $100....that for me say $1.2B FCF/year with growth is 2.5 years maybe....
Again I only get there assume 2023 goes based on the above....
Of course this is just for illustation....if at the end of 2023 the debt is $200M, there is only a 450M float, we are paying a $0.60/yr dividend....and this is trading at $5.84 with $100 oil....will never happen
I know some say "never say never"....but based on these numbers it would NEVER trade at $5.84
It does show how mispriced we are
So I wait for my dates
June 30, 2023 Initial business review
June 30, 2024 First follow-up
Just my thoughts.
JohnnyDoe wrote: red2000 wrote: 
I am not sure I agree with that math for BTE. We're notionally at 1b in debt as of June and the market cap is 3.5b. Do we generate 4.5b fcf in 2.3 years at 100? I think that is high.
anyone done the math to verify that 2.3 number?