RE:RE:Baytex : My forecast for Q2 results - 2022Hey hey BSW !
Hold on tight ! Only 1 week before Q2 results !!!
Here are more details about figures used in my forecast !
BOE/D
1st scenario : Conservative number 82,000 boe/d.
But in their july presentation we see this on page 5.
Increased production guidance to 83,000 to 85,000 boe/d on the back of strong operating momentum and production growth on our Clearwater lands,
Expect to exit 2022 producing ~ 87,000 to 88,000 boe/d
So if they want to reach they avg. of 84,000 boe/d or so, this is my own calculation
Do you imagine an increase of 8,5% of boe/d in 1 year !!!!
I don't see much CDN oil producer doing that in 2022 !!!
CAPEX
During the year, their first and third quarters are typically their largest spend quarters of the year.
A reasonable spend for the remainder of the year would look like:
So this what I used for my scenario with 82,000 boe/d
Q2: ~ $100M Q3: ~ $170M and Q4: ~ $60M
For my scenario of 83 660 boe/d, i used
Q2: ~ $60M Q3: ~ $170M and Q4: ~ $100M
I have to admit, I am a bit more optimistic !!!
HUGE DRILLING COMING IN Q3, MAY BE BOE/D WILL CHANGE AND GO HIGHER !!!
LONG TERM DEBT
As you can see, i am pretty confident to see this Debt under 1,150M$.
Do you have a similar target !?
NET INCOME and impairment reversal
In 1st quarter of 2020 they adjust their balance sheet and reduce their reserves value for 2,7B$ base on the number below :
Ref. Annual report 2020 page 54:
https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/Regulatory%20Filings/2020%20Annual%20Report.pdf
For 2021, they made an impairment reversal of 1,54B$ because all energy commodities climb
Ref. Annual report 2021 page 51 :
https://www.baytexenergy.com/files/pdf/Regulatory%20Filings/2021%20Annual%20Report.pdf
We still have a possibility to made an impairment reversal again this year, for a maximum of 2,36B$ - 1,54B$ == 820M$ base on their reserves number of 2020.
Normally they do this exercice in the 1st or 2nd quarter of the year.
So with my own complex method, the reversal should be 328,5M$ still without increasing reserves. I used 250M$ as a conservative number.
At the end net income may reach 318M$ or so.
Do you think my FCF is too high between 26-28% of gross revenues !??
I invite all readers to comments and share their own forecast or understanding of what may appears with Q2 results !!!
Hope to have comments of you, JD, ResearchSeeker 2021Gamble and why not the return of Topdown99 !!
Please do your DD, it's your money !!!
GL Longs !