RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Time to man up.. Dig in Haaave they said this though? I don't remember reading a dividend allocation percentage anywhere in YGR's materials...
To mention a few that I came across rather quickly for some context in this matter:
SGY is only paying 20% of FCF to dividends
CJ is paying 50% of FCF to dividends (with intent to increase this % after debt reduction/elimination)
CPG is also allocating 50% to dividends (I think - it's pretty murky how they state this in their presentation)
ARX 50-80% for dividends and NCIB combined
I think Nuttal has publicly stated that he's pressuring all his O&G companies to return 75% of FCF to shareholders - I don't know if he's succeeded in that for any of them yet.
Fullyautomatic, how did you arrive at your $20.8 million annual dividend allocation estimate for YGR? Seems pretty low to me... There are just so many unknowns here, making it almost impossible to speculate on a possible dividend and/or stock price effect at this point in time.
From YGR's corporate presentation (Apr 2022) they state:
"Free cash flow engine
• At current guidance, Yangarra expects to generate ~$60 million of free cash flow
• Generated $18.5 million of free cash flow in Q1 2022 alone"
So, if we assume 50% of FCF to dividends (as suggested below), then that means $30 million (using YGR's understated guidance above), which in turn means 34.5 cents per year for a 12.1% yield at today's $2.85 close. That would definately move the stock price a considerable amount and put intense pressure on the short sellers - especially with FCF expected to be sooo much higher by this time next year. How much would it move? Nearly impossible to say - given how random short covering/squeezes actually are and also how long it could take for positive sentiment to return to YGR in the general public's viewpoint. It has just been sh!t on for soooo long it the public market - so it might take a bit of time there. Who knows? I do expect them to be at least trading HIGHER than book value though, in the near term (probably over $5 to start).
EntngledOutlier wrote: They have been very consistent in their messaging they they will return cash to shareholders when a specific cash flow metric has been met, with the intent to return 50% to shareholders and the rest to debt. It would be weird from them to change course given how consistent their messaging has been.