OTCPK:NNDIF - Post by User
Comment by
ljp0101on Jul 22, 2022 5:03am
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Post# 34842345
RE:New Nif.Un target Price: $32.86 USD
RE:New Nif.Un target Price: $32.86 USDThis is just silly even if directionally correct. Boliden is doing much more than an expansion at Odda. Unit cost there is bad; they peg it as ~90% percentile so it's a shutdown candidate and close to worthless before the work. Better to use 350k as the numerator and then apply a discount to CEZ for replacement cost analysis. No need to be greedy! You'll still get >5/share.
There's no there there re cost inflation; essentially flat in USD terms from the announcement last year. If anything, EUR being toilet paper is concerning for CEZ because labor costs are becoming less competitive.
Interesting dynamic in play now because earnings will be good from hedging gains but adjusted EBITDA won't yet in Q2. And next quarter earnings will probably be bad from hedging losses but adjusted EBITDA will start to look good. But spot TCRCs are going down now and free metal value has really taken a hit so realtime spot unit economics are deteriorating.