• Guidance reiterated – Mattel reiterated its Net Revenue guidance for 2022 and 2023 (noting Net Revenue guidance is now on a constant currency basis), which calls for +8%-10% growth in 2022 and HSD growth YoY in 2023. Recall that at its recent Q2/22 reporting, Hasbro also maintained its full year target of YoY Net Revenue growth in the low single-digit range (on a constant currency basis) and Operating Profit growth of mid single-digits YoY (see link here to our read-through note). As it relates to Spin Master, we believe Mattel's Q2 results point to a supportive demand backdrop and indicate that toy suppliers are still navigating the broader supply chain challenges fairly well.
Read-through for Spin Master
• Inflation and supply chain related headwinds noted – COGS inflation (mainly materials and ocean freight) was a ~570 bps YoY headwind to Mattel's Q2 GM % YoY, which was partially offset by pricing, cost reductions, and optimization initiatives. Looking ahead, the company noted some decreases in demand for higher price point items, which may reflect some degree of consumer "trade down" amidst the inflationary backdrop. Mattel plans to raise prices again in H2 to offset continued inflationary pressures. We note that Hasbro also highlighted that input/freight costs were higher in its Consumer Products segment in Q2, which negatively impacted profits YoY. Given the industry-wide freight/supply chain issues and inflation pressures, we expect these will likely impact Spin Master's margins in Q2 to some extent as well. Spin Master has noted, however, that pricing and favorable mix contribution from higher-margin Digital revenue should serve as mitigating factors.
Other relevant commentary:
• Total company Q2 POS was “up low-double digits”. POS in North America was "up high-single digits", while in EMEA it was "up low-double digits" (Latin America "up low-double digits", Asia Pacific "up mid-single digits"). POS was up "low single-digits" through H1, with trends improving post-Easter. Management also noted on the call they expect POS for H2 to "exceed" POS performance through H1.
• Quarterly inventories were +44% YoY, with part of the increase driven by inflation. Mattel increased inventory levels to ensure product availability, while management also noted higher purchasing of inventory by retailers (on a dollar and volume basis) to support retailer and consumer demand tied to theatrical releases (e.g., Monster High) and the holiday season.