TD Notes The Gas Line
Weekly Gas Charts
Lower-Than-Expected Inventory Build. This morning, we saw the inventory build come in below expectations (32 Bcf injection versus consensus of a 44 Bcf injection). We still have not seen any material natural gas supply additions in the U.S. (up 3% y/y) while total U.S. demand remains strong (up 11% y/y) with electric power gen surging 21% above this time last year and 17% above the five-year average.
Quick Summary: Gas inventories increased 32 Bcf w/w, below the consensus expectation for a 44 Bcf injection and below the five-year average of 47 Bcf. Storage is 12% below the five-year average and 10% below year-ago levels. U.S. storage levels in days remain tight when compared with domestic/foreign demand (21% below normal levels as measured in days of supply, Exhibit 3). On this metric, we are still charting record-lows for this time of the year. Expectations for next week are for an injection of 10-30 Bcf, which compares with the five-year average injection of 32 Bcf.