GREY:ATBPF - Post by User
Post by
MrMugsyon Jul 23, 2022 5:13pm
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Post# 34845765
Keep this in mind LONGs ...
Keep this in mind LONGs ...If you take a look at peak sales for 346 acute ...
Let's assume it peaks around 2041 followed by a drop-off and then some years of modest recovery.
I see peak annual sales around $7B-$9.5B (assuming market growth of 3.5% annually and we get 15-20% of the market). I think 15-20% market shares makes sense assuming we get the best-in-class product predicted by Phase 2 A/B results and with all the hub-bub surrounding opioids and NSAIDs - TBD).
That's about double the peak sales that was expected for chronic - because chronic only had 5-7 years of IP protection whereas acute will have the full IP protection (with decreasing coverage).
Just something to think about and why "going after acute" made the best strategic sense based on what we knew after AME.
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Waiting patiently on the commercial study to either agree/disagree with that estimate.