Ways to forecast state of events The stock market usually reflects the state of events 6-9 months before the condition predominates.
Focus on Price
If the objective is to predict the future price, then it makes sense to focus on price movements. Price movements usually precede fundamental developments. By focusing on price action, technicians are automatically focusing on the future. The market is thought of as a leading indicator and generally leads the economy by 6 to 9 months. To keep pace with the market, it makes sense to look directly at the price movements. More often than not, change is a subtle beast. Even though the market is prone to sudden knee-jerk reactions, hints usually develop before significant moves. A technician will refer to periods of accumulation as evidence of an impending advance and periods of distribution as evidence of an impending decline.Distribution
The systematic selling of a security without significantly affecting the price. After an advance, a stock may start forming a top and trade sideways for an extended period. While this top forms, a security's shares may experience distribution as well-informed traders or investors seek to unload positions. A quiet distribution period is usually subtle and not enough to put downward pressure on the price. More aggressive distribution will likely put downward pressure on prices.