July 21st Q&A For those interested you can access the presentation along with the Q&A session through investormeetcompany.com - it's free, you just have to register.
The webinar reiterated the plan.
- drilling the two exploratory wells commences in September, both wells should be completed by year end. Flow testing late 2022 and January 2023. If they succeed in getting a minimum of 2 to 3k mcf then the exploration assessment phase is over, they move to begin a pilot production program of maybe 8 to 12 wells. They also hope to improve well drilling to 45 days or less.
- they expect the contracted hot rig to be ready for the September start.
- other operators in the area will be getting flow results on wells they have drilled before the fall (maybe August) their success would bode well for Falcon/origin.
- they have suffient funds to complete this year's work program. They weren't too clear on how a pilot production series of wells would be funded.
- declaration of commerciality for Beetaloo gas remains the hope for 2023/24 (after the pilot production programs by several operators), success with the pilot makes full scale development possible in 2025.
- some of the questions in the Q&A session were silly. "What is the price that gas is fetching in Australia ".... who cares , were not selling gas now , we hope to be selling gas in 3 years and no one knows what the price will be then (my answer not the company's answer of course)
- there was some understandable whining about the share price... as in wtf why is it stalled at such a low price. The CEO stated that the price is disappointing to the company as well, especially with the program being undertaken this year, the potential and all of the macro factors. He is confident that with success (if) of the two wells they expect a fundamental and permanent upside to the share price. He puts the timeline at 3 to 6 months.
The only real significant news is the company's change of heart on how to best monetize the asset. They had always stated the the plan was to sell the farm when viability of the project was established (ie: success with these two exploratory wells) Now they're saying no, that basically selling at that point would be too soon. Who knows what that means...if they succeed with this 2022 work program how do they fund the pilot production program, we're already at over a billion shares. They have experienced people and they do have some skin in the game. (Although one question put to them was hey how come insiders aren't buying more at these supposedly cheap prices).
Good luck, wake me next year.