CIBC Earnings EstimatesUpcoming Earnings
Topaz Energy (TPZ-TSX | OP, $27.00 Price Target) reports on July 26 after market. We are
forecasting production of 16.3 Mboe/d for Q2/22 versus the consensus estimate of 16.5
Mboe/d. Our CFPS estimate for the quarter is $0.63 versus the consensus estimate of $0.65.
While we are not modelling a dividend increase, we would not be surprised to see one from
Topaz given its low payout ratio.
Baytex Energy (BTE-TSX | NT, $10.00 Price Target) reports on July 27 after market. We
expect Baytex to post Q2/22 production of 81,464 Boe/d and CFPS of $0.58. We estimate
Q2/22 and F2022 capital spending of ~$105MM and ~$490MM, respectively, focusing on
maximizing free cash flow and production growth. We expect the company to reach its net
debt target of $1.2 billion in Q2/22. Once the net debt target is reached, the company plans to
allocate ~25% of its free cash flow towards share repurchases and the remainder towards
balance sheet strength. We expect an update on Q2/22 activity at the Peavine Clearwater
where the company expects to bring 24 net wells onstream in 2022. BTE's Q2/22 conference
call will be held at 11:00 a.m. ET / 9:00 a.m. MT on July 28.
Secure Energy (SES-TSX | OP, $8.00 Price Target) reports on July 27 before market. We
are forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $107.2MM versus the consensus estimate of $105MM.
Tourmaline (TOU-TSX | OP, $85.00 Price Target) reports on July 27 after market. Our
Q2/22 production estimate of ~500.6 Mboe/d is below the consensus of ~502 Mboe/d. Our
CFPS estimate for Q2/22 is $3.71, which is below consensus of $3.86. We anticipate the
company will look to announce a special dividend in conjunction with its quarter. We expect
TOU will generate ~$3/sh of FCF in Q2, and with the majority of FCF being returned to
shareholders, we expect the upcoming special dividend announcement to exceed the most
recent distribution of $1.50/sh.
Whitecap Resources (WCP-TSX | OP, $15.00 Price Target) reports on July 28 before
market. Our Q2/22 production estimate of ~131 MBoe/d is above consensus of ~129 MBoe/d,
and CFPS of $1.00 is slightly below consensus of $0.97. Whitecap has entered into an
agreement to acquire XTO Energy Canada for total cash consideration of ~$1.9 billion. The
company will focus on lowering leverage with excess free cash flow and can reach the $1.8
billion net debt target in Q4/22 and the $1.3 billion target in Q1/23 on strip pricing and at the
updated initial capital spending guidance. WCP's Q2/22 conference call will be held at 11:00
a.m. ET / 9:00 a.m. MT on July 28.
Advantage Energy (AAV-TSX | NT, $12.00 Price Target) reports on July 28 after market.
We are forecasting production of 60.3 Mboe/d, which is in line with consensus, and our CFPS
estimate of $0.76 is in line with consensus of $0.77. Advantage recently announced that
Glacier Phase 1 has been sanctioned and expects first CO2 injection to occur in late July. We
expect an update with respect to this project with Advantage’s Q2/22 results, along with
potential for increased share repurchases.
ARC Resources (ARX-TSX | OP, $25.00 Price Target) reports on July 28 after market. Our
Q2/22 production estimate of ~333.6 Mboe/d is below consensus of ~336 Mboe/d; however,
our CFPS estimate of $1.49 is above consensus of $1.45. The company is running nine rigs
in Kakwa after shifting out of B.C. We believe a resolution between the Blueberry River First
Nations/Treaty 8 and the BC Government could provide a positive catalyst for the stock, and
enable ARX to move forward with development at Attachie.
Tamarack Valley (TVE-TSX | OP, $6.50 Price Target) reports on July 28 after market.
Based on public data and facility restrictions, we expect Tamarack’s production volumes will
be below Street estimates for the quarter. Our Q2/22 production estimate of 43.9 Mboe/d is
below consensus of 45.2 Mboe/d, while our CFPS estimate is line with the consensus of
$0.43 for the quarter. We will be looking for an announcement of the enhanced return from
Tamarack, and would not be surprised to see the company look to repurchase shares given
its free cash flow generation