RE:EIA confirms API yesterday: Big Draws across the boardMigraineCall wrote: OK. Markets are nervously waiting for the shoe to drop, but with the slight reduction in demand so far, it just ain't happening.
Demand destruction is going to have to get a whole lot worse in order to start to slow down these massive decreases in inventories week by week across the board. How long till the market wakes up?
US crude inventories fell by 10.127mb last week (commercial -4.523mb, SPR -5.604mb)
U.S CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL: -4523K VS -445K PREVIOUS; EST -1500K
U.S CUSHING CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL: 751 VS 1143K PREVIOUS
U.S GASOLINE INVENTORIES ACTUAL: -3304K VS 3498K PREVIOUS; EST -1000K
U.S DISTILLATE INVENTORY ACTUAL: -784K VS -1295K PREVIOUS; EST -500K
EIA data, week ending 7/22
Crude oil: -4.5M
Domestic prod: 12.1MMbpd
SPR: -5.6M Cushing: +0.7M
Gasoline: -3.3M
Impld mogas demand: 9.25MMbpd
Distillates: -0.8M
Refiner utilz: 92.2%
Total exports: 10.87MMbpd
US implied oil demand (product supplied) fell by 1.049mbpd w/w to 19.976mbpd last week w/w changes in kbpd :
gasoline +724
jet fuel +27
distillate +53
residual fuel oil +13
propane/propylene -506
other oils -1460
Don't disagree with your underlying hypothesis about demand destruction and potential shortages of oil.
However, the fact of the matter is that if my underlying scenario about the economy and the market turns out to be accurate, the SP of SU will fall irregardless of the numbers you present. In past stock market downturns, when the tide goes out all company SPs go down - it is just a fact of life.
The key to my past success is to recognize this and have the assets to buy companies that are on sale and ride the wave going back the other way.