RE:RE:So what does exceeding expectations mean… I believe the relative risk reduction to be 30% Gorf, while absolute was 10%. Nonetheless, I believe the odds of trial success to be very high. It just all comes down to what “greatly exceeding expectations” means. I ran some calculations for fun.
Assumption
Mortality of untreated group = 50%
PMX group mortality needs to be < 40%
Requires at least 60 out of 100 to be alive at 28 days.
Probability of trial success based on absolute benefit
AB=0% PMX is ineffective at reducing mortality, chances of trial success = 2.84%
AB=10% PMX does match post hoc analysis, chances of success = 54.3%
AB=15% PMX exceeds expectations, chances of success = 87.5%
AB=20% PMX greatly exceeds, chances of success = 98.8%
AB=25% you get the picture… = 99.97%