TPHGiven their continued Buy rating and the fact that AAV "handily beat" expectations, the target doesn't look right. GLTA
09:42 AM EDT, 07/29/2022 (MT Newswires) -- Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Friday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Advantage Energy (AAV.TO) with a C$11.00 price target after the Western Canadian oil and gas producer reported better than expected second-quarter results and increased production guidance.
"Positive. Cash flow for the quarter handily bested expectations, with C$0.98/shr topping the Street's C$0.82/shr (TPH C$0.75/shr) on in-line production of 60.4mboepd (Street/TPH 60mboepd), albeit on liquids outperformance (7.4mbpd vs. our modeled 6.6mbpd)," analyst Matthew Murphy wrote. "With the result, the company upsized its 2022 volume outlook to 52.5-56.5mboepd from a prior 52-55mboepd, in-line with expectations on total volumes (Street/TPH 55mboepd), but again suggesting upside to our modeled liquids outlook at ~6mbpd vs. our modeled 5.8mbpd. Capital for the quarter totaled C$48MM (TPH C$44MM, Street C$46MM), driving free cash flow of C$139MM - well ahead of our modeled C$102MM and the Street's C$115MM, supporting buybacks of C$47MM and driving net debt (C$44MM) further below the C$200MM target. Given the outlook for free cash generation and current leverage, the company expects to rapidly accelerate shareholder returns, with all free cash to be allocated towards buybacks."