Not Worried About ATH1. Royalties are part of the agreement they entered I believe previously when they needed to and government payments. Yes?
2. A New 2023 Hedging Strategy is something that will enhance their FCF in 2023.
3. $131 USD paid against debt as we know which is 75% of the 175M USD debt repayment goal for 2022 and H1 2023 -- expect this to be achieved in 2022 -- as only $43.75 USD remaining.
4. Tax loss Carry forwards make up for some of the challenges they have right now.
What's the conclusion.
A, Each debt payment is a direct equity increase in the market cap of the firm. So keep those debt repayments coming.
B. In 2023 their hedging losses per BPD will go down my guess by $8.00 a barrel. As a comparison Gear Energy had less than $1.00 hedging adjustment per BPD in Q2 2022. Expect ATH to be able to directly return this money to common shareholders.
C. Expect 200M Cad in 2023 paid directly to common shareholders via buybacks as they mention they prefer buybacks in their presentation.
D. I hope they do buybacks and reduce their debt to less than $100M next year as the interest payments reduce and again this is a direct share appreciation relationship.
Hold this stock.
Good luck.