RE:Senate moves forward with EV tax credit reformHere's my conservative rough order kick at the can estimates of US EV battery
cobalt requirements per the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
vs cobalt mined in US or countries the US has a free trade agreement (US/FTA) with.
2021 US EV sales (as a percentage of global EV sales): 15%
2021 global cobalt used for EV batteries: 59,000 tonnes (2027 estimate = 160,000 tonnes)
Cobalt needed for Cobalt needed for US EV US/FTA %
US/FTA cobalt reqmts global EV batteries batteries
(15% of global cobalt) for US EV batteries 2021 59,000 mtpa 8,850 mtpa
2022 75,833 mtpa 11,375 mtpa
2023 92,666 mtpa 13,900 mtpa 40%
5,560 mtpa 2024 109,499 mtpa 16,425 mtpa 50%
8,213 mtpa 2025 126,332 mtpa 18,950 mtpa 60%
11,370 mtpa 2026 143,165 mtpa 21,475 mtpa 70%
15,033 mtpa 2027 160,000 mtpa 24,000 mtpa 80%
19,200 mtpa Now per the below chart (plus including Jervois' Idaho 1,900 mtpa cobalt production), a total of 14,300 mtpa cobalt is estimated to be mined from US/FTA countries for 2023 and beyond, leaving a
shortfall of 733 mtpa starting in 2026. Estimates assume US/FTA countries cobalt production solely used for EV batteries, production volumes same for each year and an equal mix of LFP/NMC batteries globally. In order for US EV manufacturers to fully comply with the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 EV tax credit requirements,
cobalt mined from the NICO deposit will absolutely be required no later than 2026 to alleviate US/FTA country shortfalls.
https://www.mining.com/top-ten-cobalt-operations-outside-of-china-and-the-drc-report/