RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Kavern23 The problem "Was' ygr hit a weak batch of wells in first half of 2021 and the effects of weak wells for shale companies like ygr on their corporate production profile really hits about 12 months later ie q1 2022 and 2022 q2. Going to continue to get better as the weak batch rolls over through time.
As long as ygr hits some good wells going forward it can easily grow fast as they don't have a lot of high producing wells that will decline. Everything has rolled off so too speak.
The declines on the old wells from 2017, 2018, 2019 look fine.
the 105m capex this year unfortunately has to cover for so,emweakee 2021 wells, q3 for should be smashing good, ng prices are high and at min ygr will score well on ng with new wells.
A jolt of good wells and shorts are f*cked
Helloworld wrote:
Production is a problem. 10.25k average over H1 when the guidance was 12k average over the year to me means they are behind. The problem with YGR is decline and the high capex to sustain operations. If they cannot get production up to 14 to 15k then they need really high wti and aeco to cover capital. With the insanely high WTI and aeco for Q2 to only FCF 23 million shows with only 10k production they are far from a cash machine. If they were at 14-15k production instead that FCF would have doubled which is where they need to be. Last year they suggested 50 million to maintain 10k and they spent 90 million and ended at 9k... until they prove they can hit production rates they will not fly.. a good Q3 may change things and then it should rerate quickly from there.. already 1/3 through the quarter..