A big thank-you postersfor your opinions on my latest post in regards to Canopy and Acreage.
For those that don't know, this is a real, actual option contract between these two companies to join forces by a reverse takeover of Acreage shares that will be swapped for Canopy Growth shares when US politicians legislate some form of decriminalization for marijuana at the Federal level or some think the SAFE banking act proposal would negate the effect of the Feds with their mighty hand that has left a lot of International players sitting on the sidelines with anticipation of joining that sweet US marketplace.
Ss80, Constellation is taking a lot of heat for the downtrend in Canopy and overpaying for the Acreage deal was the intention of Linton until Constellation came on board and took another look at it. Things had changed considerably and the crazy evaluations that most pot stocks were getting were just that: crazy! At the time they announced the deal was worth 4.3 billion but under Constellation was revisited and adjusted to $38 million paid by Canopy and the rest is shares of Canopy at close to the numbers I mentioned. Acreage Holdings is a leading US MSO by size and assets that has been oversold to the point it is at now. My belief is that this could be the deal of the century for investors that get in at the current shareprice levels. Of course Canopy can walk from the deal but if they are going to stay in the race for leadership, they need what Acreage is, have already secured it for the paltry sum of $38 million that they ensured was distributed to the shareholders of record rather than letting Murphy control it.
The cost now to control Acreage is to print sharecertificates to swap for Acreage shares, which will result in dilution of float that won't even be noticed because the legalization event will shake the pot market to life and launch the values back to future earnings potential instead of red ink. The Acreage floating shares that promise to put out $6 ish for each floating share of Acreage currently at $1ish, if Canopy exercises that option will cost $180 million. I believe they will jump on that deal to secure it as those Acreage floating shares are going to be recognized as Canopy shares by Canopy management who will benefit hugely when they can launch into that market.
That is the very reason for the deal between Canopy and Acreage, to put down footprints and plant their flag on US soil and be able to do rapid catch-up to US MSOs, some of whom are doing quite well by staying inside the Fed boundries and the State Law protection.
Charlie posted a link that reminds us of the might of these companies and that they aren't a flash in the pan. I am just as dismayed as you about Kleins renumeration and a lot of others with such a lofty sense of entitlement. They do slop at the trough hard but they also have to do some nasty deeds with layoffs and terminations and such that might require an offset of escape renumeration to buy his own island or annonymity for his safety or his family's safety. I am a law abiding citizen but think that a bullet in the azz says a lot and the receiver of that will take his shareholders and employees more seriously. You could add politicians and lawyers to that and probably a couple of others too.
OldWeed, you have put forward a really good explanation of how the big guys get control and Constellation is no dumb bunch of players but rather hardcore entrepreneurs that are proactive in going after assets they want to be prepared for the future. It seems that they see Canopy as an asset for future expansion or at minimum, a protection move to not lose their marketshare as consumers choose cannabinoid infused drinks over soft alcohol and beer drinks and appeal to consumers wanting to do something better for themselves than pounding in a lot of calories with beer when thc gives you a buzz of a different style or diabetics looking for less calories and sugar. Don't discount CBD for consumers who have found use for them as sleep, pain, anxiety and other treatments. I see such a future for cannabinoids as they get studied and proven medically for all kinds of ailments.
You mentioned the similarities between Tilray and Hexo with our situation and Tilray is systematically moving into control of Hexo which has a lot of desirable assets, brands, skus and IP that commanded huge shareprice until the measuring stick changed to accounting fundamentals and Hexo didn't make the grade. Doesn't mean Hexo is dead in the water but it is pretty clear that some hard decisions are going to be made for them by their backer financier if they allow it to operate as a separate entity.
I see Tilray emulating Constellations moves as far as beverages as they are active in pursuing production assets for beer and distilled products in the US, I believe to try their hand at cannabinoid beverages in the States.
Constellation were amongst the first to put their skin in the game in the cannabinoid field but seem to be staying with beverages, just adding a total new vice line of skus because of what their crystal ball and foresight is telling them.
Proactive, not reactive and I'm betting that they know exactly what they are doing and will take this to success with their beverage experience, connections and innovation to prepare for what is becoming more popular and mainstream as well as projected to be a major sku style as lobbyists do their magic with law and policy makers to get what cannabinoidists need.
There is still a lot of water needing to go under the bridge but Canopy is a leader in my mind and Acreage is a real deal that not that many investors care about or know about.
We will have to wait it out to see how long the US can sit on the fence in regards to some form of triggering event to see if this meets its potential.
I believe that Constellation will continue backing this because they are also financing, buying shares and being security for other loan agreements for other US potpreneurs.
I want to say, too big to fail but I remember Nortel!
Thanks for your input.
glta and dyodd