Today's price action.Context is almost everything. What is the context in which NFG is trading today?
First, NFG is in the PM market. The PM market has sucked recently. The PMs themselves are in the process of turning but the miners are slow to follow. Today we saw why. The PM’s looked to be flying higher on concern over Pelosi and China. But Pelosi landed safely. China didn’t do anything, and all three FED hucksters were out throughout the day talking hawkish, trying to walk back Powell’s comments last week. So, the dollar turned up, the trading algos ramped up, and gold and silver sold off.
Second, until Powell’s comments last week, the investing world was along for his ride, selling metals and commodities like crazy because, you know, interest rates were going higher forever and the DXY was going to 150. Until last week, the trend for PMs was down, because the market was all on board for Powell’s ride. Along the trendline down, we had up days here and there, dead cat bounces and all that.
Third, last week, Powell began to turn his ride around. The market started figuring it out. PM’s went up. But FED hucksters were always lying in wait to thwart any inkling toward too much enthusiasm in the markets. And they’ll keep doing it. They’ll keep on talking hawkish, even as Powell continues to turn his ride around. That’s what they do. That’s the context we’re in.
Fourth, unless Powell does another 180, the trend is going to continue to turn in the favor of PMs. There will be bad days. The FED hucksters will make sure of that. But, unless Powell reverses again, our context is a market that is coming to terms with the fact that the FED rate raises are done (or almost done).
So today was a crappy day for PMs. In context, it was meaningless.
As for NFG specifically, I still believe the long term investors are so locked down that the float isn’t expanding at all. A relatively few trades/traders move this stock. Whatever fickles them on any given day will determine which way it moves. Today, I think we our very short term technicals show resistance around 4.45 U.S. and support around 3.85 U.S. On that basis, I think we were a bit overbought on very short term technicals. As a result, those who actually trade this stock reacted negatively. They were fickled down because gold was down.