RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Fireside Chat on August 10While itmay be normal for biotech, it is very frustrating and the absence of explanations as the time wore on and on only raises concerns among investors, as is reasonable. TH literally let the stock bleed out during that long period quietness.
I will give them credit for actually saying they hit a snag at the 420mg level last October and extended the phase 1a timeline to the end of the year if I recall correctly. But then they went quiet for a very long time without adequate explanations. In such a situation, your average investor is not going to assume the best.
From what Juniper has told us, side effects were limited mainly to the eyes being dry but his wife only had two treatments. He did note that he thought it was odd that TH was requiring weekly blood tests so he was thinking they were worried about something. Free docetaxel perhaps? I can see them wanting to keep a close eye on that.
But the phase 1b is now past its three month mark (if everything was on schedule and a patient started on May 10th, they would have got their fourth treatment on July 26th) which for some patients suggests they have, or are about to have, 4 treatments at 300mg. The trial has not ended and we know that at least one patient in the phase 1a went for many treatments as well. Two patients from the 1 a also rolled over into the 1b so they likely have had even more treatments if theya re still in the trial. We don't know how many patients are on the trial at this point or when they started other than hearing from TH enrollment was going well at the last conference call. Christian seemed very confident they would not see a lot of trouble at the 300mg level and I am sure he has some medical data to back up that confidence. But until we are told more by TH, there will always be some uncertainty. And since we were most likely never fully informed about all of the issues which delayed the phase 1a, we really cannot know for sure if we are even on the right track when talking about this.
We also know that Dr. Winer at Karmonos indicated to Juniper that he liked the science behind TH-1902 and that my cousin was told in mid-July by Dr. Shah at Gettysburg that they were having good success at his clinic with two drugs, one of which was TH-1902.
So, we have some indications all is moving along reasonably well at the moment but it is mostly anecdotal. Maybe Paul will add some additional clarity at the Fireside chat with Canaccord.
qwerty22 wrote: I don't think their original timeline was bad. It may have been the most optimistic scenario so we could have added a few months just for normal business. I think it's likely something intervened to throw things further off. It makes sense to me you don't update by saying "we've hit a snag, we'll get back to you". You work through the issue until you have clarity on the path forward. That's where the "we'll recruit 6 more at 300" comes in. I just read through each quarterly announcement starting Oct 21 and with hindsight they tell a story of them dealing with the repercussions of safety issues that arose from the 420 dose. It follows the usual pattern in biotech of always wanting to emphasize the positive and lacking detail but I'm reading between the lines that was the issue.
It's all very frustrating but it also all seems pretty normal for biotech.
Bucknelly21 wrote:
i dont think hes stupid but he aure could have corrected the timelines
palinc2000 wrote:
Yes he sure did!!So you also think that he is stupid for not meeting the November time line...
Bucknelly21 wrote: Paul dis say ph1a would be complete in November of last year...