I did some deep DD/ digging….what could Onc be worth? First a preface;
All of my comments & calculations can be validated, with some quick searches.
longer term trends (adjusted for splits & R/S), show Onc with an all time trading high October 2000, at $140-$160( CDN).
The question then becomes " what does that equate to in market cap, based on number of shares".
Good question & glad you asked.
1998 to 2001, Onc was in formative stage & actually had a share split....yes a split.
They did multiple offerings in the $12 range. Spun off a smaller holding etc etc.
looking for a semblance of what Onc is today?
brings us to 2003. Then 27million shares, $20-$60 depending on month,
That equates to a market cap of $540 mill to $1.7 billion.(2003)
keep in mind back then not even a phase 2 trial yet.
using simple inflation of 3%/yr average
brings equal market cap to $900 mill to $2.7billion.( now). SP $15 to $45.
again, since 2003, they have come a long way. Some trials failed, but revealed useful data to be applied going forward.
The recent collaborations with Pfizer, Merck, Incyte, Roche...did not exist in 2003.
CAR-t science barley existed in 2003. The DNA sequencing technology they have access to was not invented yet.
So, while the same Onc , Pelareorep. The potential applications & proof of M.O.A. Is much greater today.
( my opinion), the rounded up $1B to $3billion. would be a math equivalent of the market cap 20yrs ago.
Now? Was that number high for the time? Low for the time?
Reality,answer to that is irrelevant!.. intersting math but not important.
what is important?
The present value of future income from Pela as a cancer drug?
The analyst are using $5billion/ year in sales, royalties potential from MBC alone.
I'm not an accountant, nore a business analyst. My instinct, the potential value on Onc ?
The $1b to $3 billion is a minimum.
We can guess & speculate for ever. Only the large Pharma can determine what value they see from Pela to enhance their business.
One last simple point. Up until 3 yrs ago, Onc was working towards Pela as a single entity.
That stratagy changed dramatically as a Co-therapy drug, working with mutiple potential partners.
Huge shift of potential efficacy & opportunities.
great week all.