RE:Size & share of the US Dialysis market ?But DIMI is not FDA approved you say ?
1. SAMI is FDA approved
2. DIMI is "partially" approved (Hopspitals & other institutions with medical supervision)
3. DIMI complee FDA approval is apparently a "when not if" event
4. Analysis does not include Canada (both already HC approved)
Does that mean that $ 3 - $ 4B of annual revenues is already, pretty much in the bag? (for a Co. plunking down $ 2B). The useablity Trial just guaranttees the last $ 2B or so?
MM
PS I prefer 2X Revenue valuations for technologies of this sort (characterized by rapid growth, high barriers to entry, great margins, paradigm shift underway, razor/razorblades model, etc.).
As always - please poke any holes you can in my logic.
mercedesman wrote: Let's try this.
U.S. Dialysis Market size was valued at around USD 33.5 billion in 2021 and is expected to witness 6.5% CAGR from 2022 to 2028 owing to the rise in geriatric population, increase in healthcare expenditure, and high disposable income.
That's $ 52.5B by 2028 (includes Equipment Sales & Peripherals)
https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/us-dialysis-market#:~:text=U.S.%20Dialysis%20Market%20size%20was,expenditure%2C%20and%20high%20disposable%20income.
About 15% (in 2021) is Home Dialysis
Let's say that grows to 25% by 2028 (assumption # 1)
Value of HHD Sector = $ 13 B (.25 x $ 52.5 B)
Assumed Value of HemoDialysis $ 39B (HHDx3)
Let's assume the ultimate DIMI & SAMI owner captures 30% of HD (assumption # 2) , and 5% of the regular Dialysis market (assumption # 3)
That's $ 4B + $ 2B = $ 6 B captured by DIMI and SAMI ($ 13B x 30% + $ 39B x 5%) in 6 years.
How much is that worth to a DaVita, or Baxter, or CVS today ?
One times Sales valuation (a reasonalbe valuation for a Healthcare/Tech Co - in fact very low for one with high barriers to entry) suggests the value of that portion of the market, in 6 years, could be worth $ 6B.
Is that annual potential ( i.e $ 6 B of top line revenue) worth a one-time outlay of $ 2 B today?
MM