RE:Positive shareholder return stressed scenarioWe are $90 now.
Tradestay wrote:
in BTE last presentation they use $75 oil for 2023 ro 2026 for projections. The estimate $600 free cash flow. It's amazing how cash flow is strong at $75. A few reasons for this are: 1) more barrels than they had in the past, remeber these guys are investing $500M to capital budget. This means as shareholders our equity is improving. We don't get dividend but a buyback, debt reduction and increase barrels is great. For context a 5000 bopd increase is like quarter of CJ Output. 2) these increase barrels are more economical coming from Clearwater. 3) less debt from 2 years ago close to 2 billion and projecting to be 800 million or less by year end means less interest. So just don't look at 90 or greater oil price alone, which I still believe is on the table due to SPR coming to a halt, record low inventory, switching to oil from gas for power generation, I d still cannot understand the gasoline implied demand numbers. BTE can make strong $ at lower oil price sp everyday at $85 plus is just powering that debt reduction and share buyback. Imagine a company debt free in less say mid 2024 thats a two years window and lower share count with $600 million free cash flow. What will the divy be at that time. Most probably the share value it self will be much higher BTE without debt is a cash cow.