RE:RE:TLV Thoughts on Suncor vs. Gamehost Capital AllocationI dont have much inside info on Keystone XL:
That said, my take on the cancelling of Keystone XL:
Before I answer your question about Keystone XL, it is important to repeat an old axiom regarding railroads and pipelines, namely: "The biggest enemy of a railroad is an oil pipeline".
1. Cancelling Keystone XL was a clever political stunt designed to conceal a quid pro quo with one of the wealthiest men in the world, namely Warrren Buffet.
BNSF gets to transport the next 200 - 300 thousand BPD of incremental oil production increase out of Aberta over the next decade. Oil that would of been pumped down the Keystone XL, in a safer and more affordable manner.
Winners: Buffet, BNSF, Biden's puppet masters, etc.
Losers: Candian and United States citizens in general.
The reason I called the Keystone XL cancellation clever is because it was presented as an environmental action. The typical ABC, BBC, CBS, NBC, CBC viewer is still convinced that cancelling Keystone XL has some beneficial effect on global warming. While the typical energy investor knows that increased Canadian oil will still flow, the general public tends to believe these false narratives.
2. If Republicans come back in power does Keystone XL have a chance?
Hard to tell. Forcasting party politics in general is not typically helpful in my experience. One needs to understand Trudeau is largely controlled by the same elites as is Biden. Ditto for most of the Republican leadership that may take power (Excluding Trump) . This is a bit of an over simplification, but largely accurate, there really is only ONE party in the United States, I just call it the UNI-PARTY. Based on the historically unprecedented raid on Trumps home today, it is rather obvious Trump is not in the UNI-PARTY. Enough about politics :-)
Short answer: Trump gets re-elected, Keystone XL is quite possible. Trump has always supported energy infrastucture that makes sense.
Long answer: BNSF can handle a lot more production than today. BNSF can probably transport another 300K BOD by rail approximately (bit of a guesstimate). So my bet is absent Trump being reelected, Alberta production would have to increase beyond BNSF ability to transport before Keystone gets approval by UNI-PARTY. In other words, if BNSF is maxed out on rail capacity, the Keystone XL might be green lighted as is or perhaps even rebranded as the solution under some false narrative.
Ooh.... I just came up with an idea for Keystone XL rebranding!
"Ever Green - Transport Sytem", and bring in BNSF as an silent equity partner under some random assumed name such as "Rainbow Transport"
The Nukester, solving the worlds problems, one issue at a time!