RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Earnings Estimates for Q3 and Q4I agree with this completely. One of the big problems with BBD is just having to show everyone that it is not the company it was and it can be trusted to concentrate on its present line of business and outcompete the competitors. The good thing I see is that the tone of media reporting on BBD seems much better than it has been in the recent past. No longer do we have each article reminding the reader that BBD failed with the C Series or that it had to dump its train devision (or that it was way behind on train deliveries). Now we seem to see media reporting on each progress milestone and almost optomistially waiting for the next milestone on the journey to becoming recognized as one of the great global companies.
But, alas, time is so short. I still feel the pain of disappointment from the last five years. Perhaps the day I no longer feel it, the market will have moved along as well. Here is hoping!
PabloLafortune wrote: Give it time. They say the market is forward looking but when it comes to turnaround situations like Bombardier, its definitely a rearview mirror operation. Even though that fellow Taleb has essentially told the street that they underestimate the upside from the long tail and the downside of the high flyers, they keep doing it over and over and over - its human nature. If you had a bad experience with Mercedes for example (I've had good experiences) in the past, your first instinct is never to buy one again even though maybe their cars are very reliable now. And vice versa. Especially here in Canada culturally speaking. Because the devil is in the detail and its not only that most don't know the detail but those that do their analysis of the detail are jaded by their past (negative) experience..And there's a lot of that to be had with Bombardier (negative experiences). Best example I can think of is AMD and Intel. At one point AMD was trading at 1/200th of Intel market cap and now its market cap exceeds Intel's. When it was 1/200th, did that make sense broadly speaking considering the 20-25/75-80% market share split back then and Silicon Valley's history of innovation and new products rendering old ones obsolete? Obviously not. But investors had been disappointed by AMD over and over and over again. Yet there it was for the taking. What is for Bombardier valuation wise relative to peers is not a $31 stock. The $31 stock reflects as a whole the past experiences of investors. Over time those bad experiences will be replaced by good ones. Give it time.