Kinaxis Inc.
(KXS-T) C$166.29
Q2/22 Results: No Signs of Slowing
Event
Q2/22 results. See our previous note for a review of the results.
Impact: POSITIVE
A strong demand environment persists with management seeing a record pipeline, a record number of unsolicited inbound deals, and a sales cycle acceleration to 12 months, from 18 months. We believe the demand is reflected in the strong Professional Services (PS) revenue and increased guidance. We continue to believe that PS strength is an indicator of a very active supply chain tech market, echoing comments from Accenture. Kinaxis grew new customer wins by 50% y/y in H1/22, with 60% of these new customers being enterprise. Management continues to invest heavily to advance its growth strategies, including geographic expansion, mid-market growth, and the rollout of its public cloud solution with Microsoft.
Management expects to launch its first public cloud customer next quarter. We will be watching customer demand for this closely as we believe it could benefit margins and cashflow, and potentially open other verticals that require specific certifications, such as FedRAMP.
We have increased our estimates given the strong demand environment, new term license customer, and strong PS demand. A new customer is choosing to have the option to host the solution themselves, although it is being hosted by Kinaxis, requiring the revenue to be recognized as term licenses. We are lowering our SaaS growth assumptions given the FX headwinds, but continue to expect its growth rate to recover to the mid-20% range next year. We are particularly encouraged by cc SaaS growing 27% y/y and cc SaaS guidance of 25%-27%. If we assume that prior guidance was more in line with cc FX rates, this would imply an increased SaaS outlook. FX also has a negative impact on EBITDA margin as evidenced by cc EBITDA margin of 15% this quarter, higher than the 13% reported. The company could come in at the high end of EBITDA margin guidance given operating leverage and a higher term licenses mix, partially offset by FX, higher PS mix, and continued investments.
TD Investment Conclusion
We increasing our target price to C$215.00. Strong demand and execution, despite an uncertain macroeconomic environment, leave us favourable on the name.