RE:Understanding the Future of Fossil Fuel Consumption Though I do not understand the intracacies of oil, I do see big pictures clearly so
1) oil is in about 6000 products and is not (yuk yuk) driven by the ICE. EVs will need roads to drive on and will always be saying hello to oil driving on asphalt
2) EV demand will not be widespread until the necessary charging infrastructure is in place. Densely populated areas will be no problem. A lot is in place and planned and can meet requirements, but largely rural areas will be at a disadvantage.
3) Targets for the elimination of the ICE will be extended for reasons of politics, economics, (countries have oil reserves and are dependent on its revenues...full stop) infrastructure requirements, and simple corporate selfishness (oilco's will want to play out their reserves as long as they can) etc, so will still be around for awhile and become more and more efficient.
4) Farmers and farm equipment are a whole wild card in themselves. In the first instance they are a powerful lobby, and in the second instance, their investment in mach8inery is huge and farm equiment can last for many years if properly maintained. Asking them to leave perfectly good equipment to rot in the back 40...and MAKING them buy new equipment AND and invest in their charging stations (most farmers now have their own gas pumps ...on the prairies it is "purple gas" ...for their farm use) is a big ask that will not go over well.