RE:Quote from an analyst on Seagen The issue with THTX is not the team, which some seem obsessed with. The question is the quality of the assets they have to work with.
The team may be able to get some growth out of the legacy drugs but I think there are clear clinical limitations so that growth is going to be limited. We might look back in 2 years and see a clear difference between revenue now and then but we aren't talking about transformative differences.
The idea to build a late-stage ready NASH asset was a good idea at the time it was initiated but in my view is it's not going to do well in the present environment given how things have changed. Essentially we need sentiment around NASH to return to circumstances it was in when their project was initiated for the rationale for that program to live again. There are routes back to that.
That leaves cancer. Cancer has the potential, it has a number of tantalizing data points, it also has the uncertainty of an early stage program.
In terms of the stars aligning.
They definitely didn't align with Trogarzo sales. The market is far more limited than was expected. The data explaining that came out from Viiv after Trogarzo was approved and before Viiv's own drug hit the market. Both drugs are showing the limitations in the lack of sales growth. The one real possibility is what Paul mentioned which would be to see the sales team as the asset and build on that with a third drug but the reality of that is vague.
In NASH not only did the stars not align, the whole universe moved in the opposite direction to the way THTX needed it to move. Some day things might re-align but it needs some external cosmic shifts.
In cancer they are moving forward. They got what they needed to get in 1a. And they got a little something extra that points to maybe getting what they need to get in 1b. They might even move to the next phase with a couple of targeted cancer treatments (Trodelvy and Enhurtu) making THatX's approach super hot. There's a possibility for external and internal stars to really align there. Some 1b derisking might be all it takes.
Paul and the team are fine, many of them maybe better than fine. It really comes down to the quality of the clinical assets.
palinc2000 wrote:
“Strategically, to us, the stars align – and we believe it is worth making a responsible recommendation"
The same statement could/should / will apply to THTX for those able to see a company being built in plain sight!!!!