RE:RE:RE:RE:Calm Before The Storm?Twiggy - I don't know something secret that is emboldening me here. I've just been following this extremely patient, methodical, and yes, extremely slowly developing company for 6+ years, and it seems to me they are the turtle vs. the hare, making sure they do everything right the first time. I fully admit there were better Potash stocks to invest in (mainly established producers) back at the 2016 Potash price botttom. Picking a developer, even at the bottom of the cycle, is a tough go. A few did well, more did terribly. Gensource has held up better than most.
But that was then. Today we are back at the top of the cycle, and I think the established producers are probably looking about as good as they're going to. Yet Gensource appears to me to be the end of the whip, with frustrated ag players looking for a way to get out of the clutches of a highly volatile (and currently, highly expensive) commodity controlled by an oligopoly. GSP's many years of technical/environmental/partner/fiscal/procurement development are now in place to deliver what the marketplace would seem to be clamoring for: vertical integration and dedicated supply from a trusted jurisdiction.
I understand why investors may have thrown in the towel. It's been a wait that few have the patience for, with constant setbacks and delays. I imagine along the way GSP management decided to stop providing frequent timeline updates, as they realized the real life process was almost always lengthier than their optimistic projections. And yet, we are closer today than ever to the long awaited financing of the first module, which could fall into place at any time, with GSP transitioning to a mine under construction.
I've been frequently accused of cheerleading on this board, but if you look back at my posts, I think you'll see 90% of what I put up here are articles, options activity and hard numbers. And when I do try to pull it all together, I attempt to state my case based on those facts. I guarantee you, I have spent more time crunching numbers, modeling profitability, reaching out to others, considering everything management says and publishes and generally pondering over Gensource's prospects than almost anyone here. I believe this is the investor's job - - to anticipate what's coming - - and not to respond solely to progress/failure posted on company press releases. Of course, that means I may end up being wrong. But in my 17 years as stock picker, even as I have sometimes learned my lessons the hard way, I've been right more than wrong. I state my thoughts on the board here, and welcome criticism and open discussion to help shape my views. My posts aren't intended as encouragement or discouragement to own the stock. Just an exchange of ideas, so we can all form our own opinions and investment strategy.