My theory on price lag and heading into 2023So lots of questions about this stock lagging. My thinking is it has to do with hedges and 2023 getting closer. CJ is unhedged. Great in 2022. We probably exit at close to zero debt. But most other cdn mid caps are hedged and their 2023 hedges are far better than their 2022 hedges.
if oil averages 85 next year, cj's fcf might drop from this year depending on the price of oil between now and year end. But for a few other companies their fcf rises next year at 85 dollar oil because of upside participation. That gives them better torque to the price of oil. So the question is why are you here? If you're seeking capital appreciation you might be better off elsewhere. If you're seeking income, CJ's current dividend is sustainable at 55 wti and they might squeak out another cent or two. Personally I'm near retirement and I'm seeking secure income and CJ looks pretty safe in that regard