RE:RE:RE:Almonty ValuationQuarterDollar wrote: @Ionade, I am going to disagree with some of your points
- I have owned several juniors that owned billion dollar assets and were bought for pennies on the dollar where shareholders only got 30% more than the current share price. Very much like where Almonty is today. A takeover offer will never give us a fair valuation. I will only consider a buyout offer after the moly is in production.
- I am rereading and rewatching all of Almonty's documentation and webnars over the past 2 years to redo my spreadsheet calculations based upon facts and given different senarios i.e. with or without the WO3 Plant. I can accurately calculate revenues from Trioxide and Nano Trioxide. Although, I don't know what the costs will be, I am calculating 70% of revenue which I think is high considering Almonty's tungsten cost is only $110 per MTU. Regardless, profits are sufficient enough to pay dividends soon after Sangdong is at full capacity. The only question whether dividends will be paid is contingent upon our growth strategy and where Almonty will be investing those profits.
- I guess time will tell what shareholders believe this stock is worth. If they believe, it is worth anywhere from $2 to $4, we will see a lot of shares trading hands. The next two years should give some indication.
let me answer to each point:
- to the buyout: I am certain that none of those bought at those low values had the insider ownership, share structure, company value, longterm mine resource we have. let me remind you that we not only have insiders with more than 20% to avoid a forced squeeze out, but also enough votes (more than 50%) to stop any low buyout offer.
Plansee surely have their own agenda, but they would not be stupid enough to allow a competitor to buy this at cheap prices. If they give it a go one day (would be no surprise and most logical step), there are approx 32% in other insider/management hands (without considering their options) and then the silent longterm holders, which would also avert any unserious bid from that side.
I am not aware of any junior at this late development stage, with a multibillion assett, that has the share structure to stop bids and the power to define the terms of any buyout themselves. We dont have a shark financing and we have a management that has the exact same interest as all other shareholders. The average shareprice of managment is not so much lower than most of us longterm holders, so they also have an incentive to have a much higher buyout price.
This is something very very (let me put another one :-)) very rare configuration we have here....otherwise I wouldnt be here!
- to the dividend: lets assume that they do not need the funds elsewhere (new mine, plants etc...); they only start producing end of next year, ramp up will take us way into 2024...so I would expect any serious discussion about dividend to start middle / end of 2024 at the earliest. since the profits will only show up in the following financials..of course they could pay exceptional dividends, but thats already a lot of ifs.....
anyways, we will get there eventually whichever way it will go. not concerned about it at all.