smallcaptdr wrote: US stocks plunged after FED Powell reassured markets that the FED will keep interest rates continuously climbing until they hit 2% Inflation and a deep recession is all but guaranteed so how long would that take? I was always told that it takes as long to get out of trouble as it took to get in trouble and this would stand true for the US, predictions right now are that 2% Inflation could be hit by the end of 2023 but in my opinion, this could take longer
if Oil, NG, and Fossil Fuels skyrocket again because the energy sector strongly dictates the cost of everything keeping Inflation high. Since June when Oil was at $110+ I predicted that Oil would be at $75 year-end when everyone else was preaching that Oil won't drop below $100 so I've been bashed regularly but at the end of the day I have been the one whos been right and it was them who got it wrong. but lately, I could see Oil at $65- with all the headwinds with Russia selling Oil cheaper plus the G7 still wanting to cap it on average of $50, and on top of this the economy is heading for rougher times globally with Central Banks raising Interest Rates
plus additional production being added from Iran, Libya
plus exploration for Crude has been steady so with everything combined $75 Oil estimate is being conservative in my opinion and we have already sold Oil off to hit $85 Aug 16th but now with talks of manipulating Crude production things could change but if Oil does spike up it won't be for long because it will put additional stress on the economy that could lead to a complete breakdown and will send shockwaves through the markets spiraling into a deeper recession than currently anticipated then Oil will be sold-off down to $20 like it hit in 2020 so while it's taking a year to lower Inflation expect the stock markets to have a correction and we have already started.
The bottom line is if everything stays status quo I would be 100% right over the last 2+ months about the projection of Oil hitting $75 or lower but it will take a wildcard scenario something that I couldn't possibly of seen occurring to change this but now I stand firm about a market crash as I take in account of everything that has changed in the world, especially the crises that Russia has created in Europe, and if you're not aware, there's also a food crisis in Europe do to a shortage of fertilizer so Inflation will continue to skyrocket and I believe that Europe could be heading into a civil war because businesses are closing shop because of NG being up 500%. I could go on forever but mark my words lower SP will be the least of your worries in the coming months. JMHO
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