RE:RE:Interview with Richard Kellam
WanTBe1 wrote: With all this talk about DCM I don't see to many rushing to buy. Maybe in the fall.
I think there will be good opportunities in the fall or even in 2023.
I'm certainly bearish on the economy over the next 6-12 months and I don't see how we can avoid a recession. Early signs in Canada for the month of July is already showing a contraction and I think the story is just getting started. Headline inflation may have peaked but I think core CPI or inflation with food and energy removed has not peaked yet and I think we move above 6% y/y very soon. The Fed funds rate is likely to be at around 4% by the end of 2023 as this should exceed core pce or core cpi for a sustained period to bring down inflation. I expect the housing market will lead us into a recession as this is the only way I see a path to a 2 % inflation target.
^ home prices= ^ rents = ^ wages = ^ high inflation