RE:From Mosaic's earnings transcript goldwatch69 wrote: In potash, we continue to expect Belarusian exports to be down 8 million tons this year. Some of that will be mitigated by incremental supply from producers like Mosaic over the next 18 months. But that will not be enough to erase the deficit that we see lasting well into 2023 at least. In phosphates, China has continued to restrict exports as it prioritizes domestic industrial and agricultural demand. We now believe full year phosphate exports from China could be down as much as 5 million tons from the prior-year total of 11.5 million tons. Shifting focus, we believe global fertilizer demand in the first half of 2022 was down about 10% from the same period last year, which aligns with the shortfall we've seen in supply. Grower sentiment has grown more cautious. But supply constraints are supporting global prices and margins well above historical levels, a situation we believe will continue at least through the rest of the year.
it's in an interesting gamble to continue ramping up additional production assuming that extraordinary elevated prices will continue to be absorbed by farmers due to a key assumption: global demand destruction will be less than supply disruption. Nutrien and Mosaics potash margins are so huge they can be quite wrong and still have enormous windfall profits for now.