RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Bicycle Therap. - encouraging in ovarianTotally understand the skepticism many here have and, ultimately, it will all be about the science advancing TH1902 into Phase 2 or not. We shall see. Additionally, I think we've established we all agree with the Canadapeit insistance about more ownership. That is where the rubber meets the road for management showing confidence. Nothing else compares. So more inside share sales will be a huge negative and would only support the view that the CEO and CMO's words are inaccurate and misleading. If the words are to be believed, there should be buying, not selling regardless of situation or view on "my total comp has to be $XXXXXX." Paul should put an end to that argument now. These points are not debatable for this board anymore, it seems. So we're all in agreement. Let's watch.
Just want to point out one thing on the Trogarzon post. In the past I had also used this kind of "percentage move" analysis around small milestones where it's more applicable. But if you get a milestone that substantially derisks a clearer commercial revenue line, the percentage move will be forgotten and the overall market cap will be in play. In biotech situations like that, today's price doesn't really care where it was yesterday, 3 months or a year ago. It will look at what that potential value could be on an NPV basis and what comps look like in their overall market cap or enterprise valuation.
By way of example, if that analyst I quoted yesterday who upped their price on Bicycle by the equivalent of $300mil on a 1 year view simply based on a tiny sample of patients in Ovarian cancer being stable and one showing a CR, then decent numbers for TH1902 in Ovarian may comp at something similar. Certainly something decent in TNBC, HR+BC, Melanoma and some of the bigger ones would be 4-5x that. In other words, if they also move on Ovarian, that analyst would have had said the stock should be up $3 or so. Maybe TNBC would be $10-15 or so. It will be the market cap and how it comps that will drive it in my view, regardless of the starting point the day it's announced. Now, I'd agree, discount this all since no oncology analyst is following it yet!
For my northern friends..Love Live the King! I like Elvis.
canadapiet wrote: They do understand the game and the business.....!
They are at TH for their paycheck. The rest is "sideshow". No vested intrest in the company, so if and when they need money there will be a new offering, a very bad new offering!!!
And hidden lies......,how long are they telling the market they are in a strong position to negotiate a deal with that Chinese company........:-).......
But hey, maybe very good results tomorrow and we all will be happy .....!!! (and no MR. SPCEO1, we will be no "geniuses", just lucky.....!!!!)
Don't forget to live because our world is in a desperate state....., good luck all!!!
Trogarzon - (9/8/2022 1:55:39 PM)
RE:RE:RE:RE:Bicycle Therap. - encouraging in ovarian
Not being in the game ia some kind of permanent state at Thera... maybe we go down another 30% between now and then thanks to tax selling and maturing options. Then we go back up to 3$ tahnsk to spectacular Th1902 results and 24 hrs later an OO no.2 @ 2.50$ with excuses of biotech market being difficult and all... why because it's Thera and they never understood the game overthere...