RE:RE:With All due RespectAnother great post as usual my friend!!
If anything your post illustrates the accuracy of the first paragraph of my previous post...for this type of data you need to have vast knowledge of the oil industry in order to benefit from it and also the time and inclination to analyze it correctly and determine a course of action.
That said, I think our posts illustrate a point I have made many times in the past. That is that people need to assess their own personal situation, tolerance to risk and financial objectives. My feelings rightly or wrongly are that we are very different in this regard. The only right answer is what works for you.
Charlie Munger has a strategy which is different from mine and mine is different from yours and yet all three of us are successful.
In my case, the money I make today is money I will personally never use and so if I make more, from my perspective I am actually working for someone else - that is not necessarily a bad thing but it is not a priority to me. So while I can't avoid making more money (lol), this activity takes up very little of my day and I see it more as an exercise in keeping my mind active so I can enjoy my remaining time on earth longer and sharing my knowledge and experience with others who consider what I have to say useful to them.
Soooo....if I have the choice of spending four hours studying the stock market or riding my bicycle, I will pick the bicycle every time. For others, they would make the opposite choice and that is fine too if it makes them happy and they are doing something they like to do. As my Dad often said, "All you really have is time - use it wisely".
So how do I balance all this?
As I suspect most of you have figured out, I take a broad high level macro view of the market and put together a strategy that fits with what I see happening and then stick to it until something important changes. So like Charlie Munger, I see a big storm coming but it isn't here quite yet and so I am 75% invested and 25% in cash. As the market fluctuates and tries to figure itself out I will buy a few things have less cash for a while and then on the other side of the fluctuation replace the cash position. As I see the storm getting closer I will increase my cash position as I have done in the past so I don't follow the market down to the same extent and then buy things on sale after it is clear that the storm has passed.
This approach gives me lots of time to do the things I enjoy doing and yet provides the intellectual stimulation that I need so it works for me but it may well be totally wrong for someone else. The lesson here is to do the best you can to figure yourself out and live your life accordingly. My assessment of you, Migraine, is that you have done this and that is great.