RE:RE:RE:RE:i will leave this right hereMoneyK wrote: Heres a fact. Stone Canyon purchased a portion of K+S for 12.5 times the EBITDA. A 3.2B US deal. https://www.kpluss.com/en-us/press/press-releases/KS-sells-its-Americas-salt-business-to-Stone-Canyon-Industries-Holding-Mark-Demetree-and-Affiliates/ I'll let you imagine the EBITDA potential for Great Atlantic and do the math. MoneyK
Lol, I'm surprised it took this long for someone to find that! Yes, that is one of the metrics that can be used to assess the value.
This will need to be paired with a detailed DCF analysis model with a range of possible outcomes to assess the
possible valuation of an operating mine as well as other KPI/industry metrics.
However, at this point, this is still an undeveloped mine (assuming we are talking about a pre-operational buyout). So, any EV would need to be discounted for (i) likelihood of achieving production targets, (ii) ability to hit earnings forecasts, (iii) and not to mention the execution risk of getting the mine up and operational and much, much more. Yes, the asset is de-risked based on Atlas' work to date. However, in the end, no company it going to pay operational mine multiples for a salt asset. Any valuation will need to be discounted for execution risks. At this point the thinly-traded market has no idea what that is. My hope is that more clarity will come to the front once the FS is out there. I can guarantee you that any interested suitors may have started their due dilligence but not one is going to stick their chin out until they have good, independent info. If someone had alreday come forward they would be the bottom-feeder type and would have alreday been told to go away. I doubt that has happened.
There is no doubt this mine has great value. The amount that someone is willing to pay will depends on the number of possible suitors (if there are any) and how much they push each other. Any eventual purchaser may want this mine for reasons we can't even fathom yet.