RE:RE:RE:What will the Trans Mountain Pipeline mean for Can O&G?TMX will tend to lower the differential, but not eliminate it entirely. Presently about -$US20.50 of WTI. I expect it should bump it up to about -$8 as a new normal after TMX is in operation in a little over a year.
The SPR daily releases are expected to accelerate over the next weeks, before terminating with the abrupt closing of a gate valve now feeding the commercial markets and keeping commercial inventories flat. We are in typical shoulder season, and I don't expect big draws at the moment. Last week all variables in the inventory equation were skewed to make a large build. Will see.
Whether they replace most of the oil taken from the SPR in 2024 is still up in the air. The initial releases were to be replaced with interest. The rest (most) were an outright sale.
In the near term, by end of October, Europe will be just starting to head into winter, and Russian crude deliveries to the EU will stop in December. Expect the gas will too as it is in Russia's interst to cause the most pain for Europe. The US and others will send as much product as it can to support Europe, to attempt to get it through the shortages and spikes in product prices. The worsening eastern US shortages of diesel are beyond immediate repair and rebuild, so it will in turn support the gasoline markets in NA and abroad.
The biggest variable in the equation is China. Presently, the market is pricing in the continued China zero covid policy and how it is holding back Chinese crude demand. If that changes, better grab hold of something and hang on for the ride.
IMO it is China, along with other geopolitical risks simmering, leave the potential for a major spike in crude, and also serve to put an $80 floor under the crude market. News from traders is that we have just rebounded from an oversold condition.
Presently, it is the lack of pipeline tidewater LNG egress that is landlocking our massive reserves of natural gas. It is unforgivable that the the situation is so bad, that AECO spot went negative 2 weeks ago, while they pay a kings ransom for it in Europe.
A malicious act of treason on our country by all those that stood in the way.
meritmat wrote: They get wti price instead of Canadian select.