RE:Oil starts going to $120.or more in 3 months or less
The policies of green power and dirty oil are in an inevitable conflict, and this is something that need not occur. Politicians avoid pracality for dogma making this a clash rather than co-operation. Oil companies know it is inevitable, and are already making shifts in reognition of this. We need about 100mm bbls p/day, 10+ years in the future we still will. Despite gains on the green side, population growth and limited ability of third world countries to shift, will keep demand stable, and maybe even increase. Oil is here to stay for my lifetime, and conflicting rather cooperative policies will create instability and inevitably higher prices.
The loss of insurance on Russian exports is another sanction that will likely be countered. Inevitably, Russia or Russian insurance companies will fill the gap with self insurance to keep their cargoes moving. There will be some falloff, but it will bounce back quickly. Iran did this some time ago, and they are likely less sophisticated, so wouldnt gamble on that aspect.