RE:RE:What is concerning about the Russia warRight. Not that concerned.
Putin is well suppported in Russia which makes this unlikely, but if he loses power, it will be that someone else will change his policies and a government that will be more pro west. otherwise , no need for a change as the cronies still benefit.
I have zero faith that governments somehow see the light, and come together to unite in friendship and hold hands singing a John Lennon song and start to solve the worlds problems.
However, let's look at the implications of an about face on Russia's stance to the west, which is even more remote. There has been so much permanent damage to the relationship, that this East/West rift will go on for many many years even if things started to move towards a more normal state. Russia has taken over and kicked out partners in their oil E and P facilities among other industries, and companies have left behind their operations and taken a big loss due to this and sanctions. They are not going to easily jump back in. We are now at an oil price at pre invasion levels. There is no war premium anymore, yet we are in a worse supply situation as we were prior to February as minimal global capital spending continues to erode spare capacity.
An end to the war, only if accompanied by a return to normal relations would be major positive support for all global economies and minimize the effects of a global recession. It would enable gas to flow to Europe again, saving the continent from a painful energy crisis and economic ruin. With increased economic activity, oil demand will increase more in line with previous demand forecasts, and find an easier path out of a global recession.
However, going forward as we are now, each side will create their own bifurcated economic spheres, and compete with the west for global resources and control. Many more proxy wars will be fought, and unfortunately it is the millions of the poor that will suffer most with famine and high energy prices going forward.
Energy is still key for both sides, with each sourcing their oil from different regions, the east being of minimal moral standards, at a discount. The west taking the high road, will pay through the nose. The incremental barrels will be fought for in a price competition on the global market between east and west.
The losers of this are the consumers of oil. The winners of this are the exporters of oil, the east that gets their lack of morals discount, and those that stay neutral but are buying sanctoned oil, refining it, using it, and exporting their own oil and product to the west.
Looking at the many who benefit most, they will want to keep the current arbitrage in place for as long as possible, so the impetus for change is absent, except in the west.
Time is not on our side. As we drain the SPR then stop, and create a large commercial deficit week upon week, it will be clear that we will be unable to get back to positive flows. The west will have much higher oil prices, and result in a deeper recession. The only way to bring the differences in supply/demand is demand destruction due to high prices, the likes of which have yet to be seen.
My thoughts, anyway.
Experienced wrote: Good question.
Frankly, I would be more worried about interest rates going up than whether or not Putin gets taken out.
The thing is that even if Putin where to be taken out ( a long shot IMHO), we have no idea who would be in charge then. Sorta like the old saying "Be careful what you wish for".
In terms of the world energy/oil situation, I would be very surprised if a Putin successor did anything different given the strategic importance of putting Europe on its heels and the deals with China and India.
I would be willing to bet one of my millions that Migraine isn't worried about this...lol.