RE:BreakoutI don't presume to reply for star - way more knowledge and experience than I do - but my observation is that most of the share price increase going forward at least % wise is going to come from debt reduction and cadence increase. Yes the stock is on a forward momentum relatively speaking but the stock market situation is pretty bad - Fed Ex dropped 22% today!
Setting aside cadence increase for a second, if you normalize the debt to $3B @5% (Textron more or less at current mark to market on their bonds), at 17 PE you add C$7B of market cap by reducing the LTD by $3.3B (USD), bringing it to C$10.1B. Well at 20% margin on $6.5B revenue less $650M of G&A and R&D, less $150M of interest, you get $500M USD cashflow which at 17 P/E and 1.32 exchange translates to $11.2B (C$) market cap.
I listed out the opportunities to reduce the debt thru various means a while back but now I narow it down to balance sheet management, secured line of credit (freeing up the cash on hand) or debentures. I don't feel the backlog can increase after this week or at least I wouldn't count on it and if they don't increase the cadence, the cashflow after interest expense won't be that significant either. Debentures is interesting because a) there's been a lot of activity in biotech south of the border with some creative deals (the upside on some of the debentures is limited to 100% increase I think) that entail 1% interest and b) because Bombardier would be applying presumably all the proceeds to debt reduction, the premium over the stock price should be higher esp. if combined with the other aforementioned debt reduction activities - by my calculation, a premium of 100% could be justified in that scenario.
Also of course is the not unimportant factor that now is probably a good time to be recalling/redeemeing/buying back bonds (the 2027's are down to 93 today).
And there it depends on how good management is in recognizing the situation and acting on it, and with of course the support of the Board of Directors and controlling shareholders as it could entail a dilution of 10 to 20% (assuming they went the convertible debenture route).
IMO. GLTA. YMMV.