RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RBC's aftermarket dumpI will admit that we saw higher volume than we have seen recently yesterday, aprticulalrly in the late afternoon, but I would hardly call that a significant level of volume. In terms of dollar value, only about $338,000 of stock traded hands yesterday. That is still a miniscule level of trading. It will take some time, and much, much more than some meetings in Montreal and Toronto with institutional investors to get the stock price, the market cap and the level of trading volume up to levels TH's propsects justify. But at least it is a start. Still, with all due respect to Research Capital and their analyst, visiting institutional investors in Montral and Toronto is probably not the answer to TH's issues with the capital markets. We have been down this path many times before so we know the results are not likely to be satisfactory. Hopefully, I am wrong about that but it seems TH is trusting in hope over reality by returning to their normal IR approach.
If TH-1902 has a chance to be special, which it sure seems like it does, TH needs to act like it does. rather than act like the small Montreal based biotech searching for new investors among the same group it has burned several times over the last couple of decades. Moreover, most, if not all, of those institutional investors they met with alst week cannot buy the stock at its current low price, low market cap and low trading volume even if they wanted to. The only point of marketing to those investors now is to prepare them for participating in a future share offering. Again, however, if they really have something very intriguing in TH-1902 then they should be trying their best to prepare institutions south of the border for that upcoming offering. What they announced with the publication in Pharmaceutics last week seems impressive and they likely could find an audience in the US for such info. Hopefully, they are heading to New York and Boston soon.
The stock likely will not jump until they actually report good news from the phase 1b. Assuming decent early enrollment in the phase 1b, they should by now have accumulated some good results if TH-1902 actually works in humans as we think it does and more results should be coming in each week. So, sometime between now and when they announce third quarter results, they should be able to announce at least proof of concept has been achieved if not a protocol amendment or two to increase the number of patients to 25 in individual types of cancer where early efficacy has been seen. If we hear nothing about efficacy being seen among the early phase 1b patients between now and when they announce third quarter results, then investor anxiety will justifiably begin to build. If TH-1902 is as impactful as the pre-clincial work hinted at, as was seen in the phase 1a portion of the trial, as Juniper's wife saw after two treatments and as the patient at MD Anderson evidently experience after perhaps just one treatment, then there has to be some efficacy already evident among the early phase 1b patients that have already made it past the 12 week mark.
The fact the company was out talking to institutions last week with Research Capital setting up those meetings for TH, the fact the Canaccord analyst suddenly decided to update his model and raise his price target for no obvious reason and the fact that Canaccord gave TH a prime spot at their conference are all pretty good hints in my estimation TH already knows they have some good results in the phase 1b and are prepping to announce them at some point soon followed by a share offering if the stock reacts favorably to that news. These hints are all part of the "dance" that goes on prior to an offering. Now, this is all just speculation on my part, so understand that it is just educated guesses from an long time analyst. Also, while TH may have already seen efficacy like I amguessing they have, we don't know anything about just how efficacious TH-1902 is. Nor do we know anything about the timing of when they will release news on efficacy in the phase 1b. Paul earlier indicated they might have multiple announcements on the phase 1b between mid-August and Christmas. So, TH it sounds like theymight have a series of efficacy announcements that ultimately build to a crescendo of success in the pahse 1b, thereby boosting the share price,market cap and trading volume and creating the conditions for institutional investors to be hungry to particpate in the next share offering to gain faster and cheaper access to the stock. TH's more typical pattern,however, has been to store up good info for one big, impressive reveal followed quickly by the share offering. So, perhaps that is what we should expxect. If so, we will only get some encouraging but vague comments from the Q3 call and the big reveal will come later. For example, Paul recently mentioned to another large investor that the phase 1b trial was "advancing nicely". That is the kind of comment that CEO's often make which sounds good but actually tells us very little. I am hoping that is not what we hear on the Q3 call if we have not heard anything prior to that.
Trogarzon wrote: We are left guessing again about 10% market swings on significant volume. It's not about commenting market girations but I remember a time you could give them a call and get a strait answer to something like... hey wtf is going on... and a calm ... nothing we know about and btw we're doing fine calming answer.... might have been bs but shure helped being patient and positive. Now a days you can,t even get IR to phone you back... no wonder shareholders are bailing... you are showing them the door...