RE:Thera continues to post on cancer on LinkedinUnfortunately, we are in a bear market so it has been and will continue to be a struggle for most stocks to go up until it is over. But the bear market may not last too much longer as we seem to be fast approaching what my mentor John Templeton called "the point of maximum pessimism" which defines the best tmime to buy. Meanwhile, at least TH may soon have a reason to see its share price rise anyway as news about progress in the phase 1b trial of TH-1902 is due to come out soon.
Also, it is worth noting TH was unusually quiet this year as the phase 1a was underway, at least until late July and had not participated in any investor conferencecs in at least the six months prior to July. Once they announced the debt deal and the phase 1a results in late July, things finally started moving a bit on engaging with investors again. Note late July was also the time when they should have been seeing their first 12 week scan results from the earliest phase 1b patients, results they have not shared with investors yet but should say something at least by their Q3 financial results conference call which will likely occur sometime between 10/11 and 10/13. By the time of that call, they should have had enough early patients run through the full 12 week cycle of TH-1902 treatments to have a good idea of what TH-1902 can do for patients.
If they are seeing favorable results in the phase 1b, that means at least one phase 2 trial is on the immediate horizon. Since a phase 2 trial is a larger undertaking, TH will need to sell some additional shares or raise new capital via partnership deals to fund that trial while maintaining a comfortable level of cash reserves. Therefore, if the TH-1902 phase 1b trial is going well, we should expect to see TH getting things prepared for a share offering. And that is exactly what we are seeing.
Here is a list of hints that something favorable is afoot in the phase 1b:
1.) In mid-August, Canaccord gives TH a very nice spot (in terms of time) at their conference for a fireside chat with their analyst. Canaccord had previously been largely ignoring TH.
2.) In early September, the previously apathetic Canaccord analyst suddenly decides out of nowhere and with no apparent reason to update his well out-of-date model for TH and to raise his price target by 50% even while slashing his future sales estimates (which were,to be fair, stupidly high).
3.) In mid-September, Research Capital's analyst takes TH to visits with some of their institutional clients in Montreal and Toronto.This analyst was the lucky recipient of the lead position on the last offering and is the only analyst who has made more than a cursory effort (but not much more than that) to follow TH somewhat reasonably. He also has the highest price target on the stock among the analysts following the stock.
4.) In late September (next week) TH's CEO will present at the Cantor Fitzgerald conference on a panel with other CEO's - a prime spot that companies like TH generally never get at such a conference. This will give TH a spot in the limelight at this cancer focused conference so that more US based cancer stock investors will understand what they are up to with TH-1902.
So, in a short period of time beginning shortly after TH started seeing its first 12 weeks scans of the earliest patients, TH has gone from a place where they spoke to virtually no investors other than at their quarterly conference calls to getting prime spots at two investor conferences. From where I am sitting, these are very promising indicators of some degree of efficacy for TH-1902 being announced in the not too distant future with a share offering following such news. Additionally, I am not sure TH suddenly starts getting treated so welll by the brokerage community who had nearly completely written them off unless they have indicated to those brokers in some manner that the share offering they would need to do if the phase 1b data is good would be a significantly sized one. Which may mean they could be looking to finance more than one phase 2 trial and maybe a whole lot of other earlier work/trials too becuase if TH-1902 works nicely with Docetaxel, they are going to want to try it out with other chemo drugs too of course. In fact, there would be too many potentially rewarding paths for TH to explore on its own so partnerships would also be in play as well.
Things are clearly looking up for TH given the early signs from unexpected attention they are getting from brokers. It is too bad the timing is so awful with the current bear market but perhaps that will have calmed down by the time they announce any info on TH-1902's early phase 1b results in mid-October. The stock is not likely to move too much on the upside until they announce any good results they may be seeing but there is good reason, based on how the brokers are suddenly renewing their interest in the stock, to believe promising results of some magnitude are likely to be the outcome. Those hopes are bolstered by the limited release of phase 1a data as well. The fourth quarter has the potential to make the long, laborious wait for TH to find its footing again worth it. We should know if that will prove to be the case before too long.
jfm1330 wrote: Again. It does not look like a company seeing a brick wall coming in phase Ib. Add to that the Cantor conference to which they will participate. That being said, I would like to see the SP go up just a little bit.
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