Just a thought at the end of one crazy week Obviously there was some panicked selling today and everything was getting thrown out , baby , bath water and the tub . Everyone gets a couple of days to reassess but it would seem that O&G just can't get a break , at least O&G in Canada can't . Tech stocks were valued on 20X forward sales while O&G is valued at a few times earnings . A sector that has shed 1000's of 6 digits jobs because all they can do is maintain , you can't build and all that money goes to debt payment and shareholders instead . Canada has the 3rd largest reserves but we can't get it to market , eastern Canada buys oil from OPEC rather than Alberta and the west relies on one customer who is free to discount our product and the country looses .
In a parallel universe , another version of Canada (that had a plan) survived covid and came out of the pandemic like we did in 2008/9 . The economy is solid keeping debt and taxes low on the windfall of resource revenues . Too bad we live in Trudeau's Canada and not the parallel one .
I just saw some video on the protests in Iran over women being killed and arrested for not adhering to head covering rules . The "morality" police are being used to break these protests up by any means at their disposal (echo's of Ottawa last Feb) . If you saw the Iranian president on 60 minutes , you know how fanatical this regime really is . I put Putin (Russia) and Venezuala in the same catagory . Why would any democracy want or even suggest that buying oil from these dictators is a better option than home grown energy from your own back yard . Why send those billions of dollars to support war and terrorism when they could stay right here at home where we all would benefit .
The left has to stop acting so childish and have a real dialogue on a transition strategy that not only considers 2050 but the 28 years between now and then . Politicians raced to see who could be the greenest , most woke lgbtq smoochin enabler in the free world without ever considering how to acheive that goal or the consequences to the economy . Our PM is a drama teacher , finance minister is a journalist , health minister is a graphic designer .......... these people have no qualifications and no business running our government . As long as the ndp continue propping up Trudeau , Canada will not be helping anyone or adding to the global energy supply .
Things will start looking different as we get past Nov 8th , depending on who wins what , it will dictate priority and direction . In the mean time the clock is ticking , the SPR is draining , production remains flat , Iran is not an option , Russian oil sanctions are in effect Dec 5th and demand is strong even with China's covid lockdowns . China lockdowns are now ending and Xi needs to get that economy going . The UK raised interest rates on Thursday and cut taxes to stimulate growth on Friday , these are indeed crazy times . Europe is fighting to keep their economies going without outstripping energy supply and Jerome is fighting them all .
As cheap as these energy stocks have been , today has been over the top as the algos kept knocking down the dominos . With all the risk to supply and regardless of the sheep running for cover , when the phantom barrels don't appear on cue and demand remains steady someone will yell BUY EM and WTI will be off and running . With full employment and millions of job openings , it will take longer to slow the economy down than people expect which will also keep demand higher than pundits are admiting . Hurricanes , political tensions , the truth , they all pose upside risk to oil and they always show up out of the blue . We'll see on Monday whether the market thinks this has been over done after they see who drops out in the morning . I know RBC will be buying for BTE at these prices .
People laugh when you say it but "it is different this time" in all respects , Russia is trying to kill Ukraine , Biden/Trudeau are trying to kill oil , the fed is trying to kill the economy and Iran wants to kill us all . Its like watching a drunk Greyhound bus driver pass the sports car and skid on black ice , the bus is full and the driver is unlikely to regain control ......... duck , roll and cover !!!!