RE:RE:RE:Worth a re-read Excerpts (cont’d)
Price: The rise of vanadium
The price of V205 hit its highest point in 13 years reaching $US32.50 in October 2018.
The price came off an all-time high in 2005 before going for a run again in 2008. It levelled out to trade pretty well flat between 2009 and 2015 before taking off again in 2016.
Though the price has picked up in 2022, it can be volatile as the price is captive to both Chinese steel production (with China being one of the biggest steel producers in the world) and the iron ore price cycle given most vanadium production is in the form of ferrovanadium as a steel alloy input.
Outlook for vanadium stock
Vanadium demand for VRFBs is growing at a rapid rate. The forecast compound annual growth rate for vanadium to be used in VRFBs is 60 percent.
Current demand is about 100,000 tonnes per annum, but that is tipped to triple over the next five to six years.
Benchmark boss Simon Moores says vanadium could have its “Elon Musk moment” as it advances towards powering 25 percent of stationary battery storage by 2028.
“The potential for vanadium flow is absolutely significant,” Moores told delegates at an industry event earlier this year.
“If the vanadium market gets a number of key [mines] up and running quickly, vanadium flow could have its ‘lithium-ion battery moment’ — its Elon Musk moment.”
The man himself, Musk, said at a shareholder meeting earlier this year that “the rate of stationary storage is going to grow exponentially”.
“For many years to come each incremental year will be about as much as all of the preceding years, which is a crazy, crazy growth rate,” he said.
Lux Research forecasts that vanadium flow batteries will be at the very least a $190 million market opportunity by 2024 and on an “optimistic” basis will be well over $400 million.
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