RE:RE:RE:RE:Earnings results likely moot eventPablo, it's an interesting discussion. My problem is that right now I can argue with valid reasons the full spectrum of possibilities for the market. But that's because it's a market I just haven't seen before.
For example: A recession with huge job demand? Inflation that isn't driven by normal inflationary pressures but by ongoing supply chain issues due to a once in a hundred year pandemic? A Fed that reacted to a pandemic to a degree never seen(don't blame them), now having to unwind what they did? A pandemic in the rear view mirror.....we hope..but don't know for sure? And then if it isn't all bizarre enough, the Ukraine situation is tenuous.
The question is not whether these factors are factors. More important is how much has the market priced in these factors? I understand what you're saying regarding basically just having unwound to prepandemic levels, and the world is in a worse place, therefore there could be more downside. I think there's an arguement though that suggests when there is enough troubling signs and people barf up shares everywhere, that that too is not a normal situation. Outside of the start of the pandemic, have you ever seen a 5000 point drop in the dow in that short a period? Not me.
So I think the most likely answer in the market is we just don't know what to think, or focus on, or consider. One day, hindsight will be a wonderful thing. Right now, it's all just confusing.
Now, back to Bombardier, one of the BIG things that attracts me to the stock (outside of obvious great planes and service), is that the people who are buying these planes are far FAR more recession proof than we could ever imagine. To put this into perspective, think no further than the Jeff Bezos divorce. He paid out $38 BILLION to his ex. That's a staggering sum, but something tells me it didn't impact him or his lifestyle one bit. So the people who are buying these business jets might be ever so slightly impacted by whatever inflation or interest rate or recession elements. But it's certainly not going to change their life or their spending habits. Lucky for them I suppose, but as it applies to Bombardier, and do think it adds a LOT of weight to considering the company in a good position regardless of the econonomic impacts affecting "everyday" people. The everyday people just aren't the ones buying jets.
PabloLafortune wrote: Star, the thing about inflation is, it really only impacts the poor and middle class standard of living as they themselves have no pricing power. The wealthy only feel it when interest rates rise and asset values reset lower. Now we have both. I mention COVID because the recent lockdowns in China has shaken people's confidence in the govt. More importantly, ask yourself are we in a worse global economic situation today than we were pre covid? Without a doubt the answer from China, India, SE Asia, Africa, Europe NA etc would be a resounding yes. So another 10-30% market drop is in the realm of possibilities IMO given that the indexes are now trading at pre covid levels. By the way, I feel the same as I did on late January 2020. Except the Fed is going in the opposite direction.... That said, I agree that at $25-27 BBD has way more upside than downside. Doesn't mean there's no downside. Sorry for being a Cassandra.