RE:great news from treaty creekhighper wrote: Figuring out what it means is another thing....
Hi highper. From my perspective it seems to be quite significant. In order to calculate a ballpark estimate of how significant I'm using the following methods:
We know that Goldstorm is a very consistent system. On average the drilling results show mineralized widths per hole of about 564m and average gold grade (Au only) is about .677g't. Grade * width on average is about 382.
For each press release we can determine how the results stack up against the average. In this latest, I show an average grade * width of about 405, slightly above average. I should note that I count wedged holes, such as GS-22-145 and GS-22-145-W1 as the top and bottom halves of the same hole for these calculations.
The effect of the step outs then becomes really important, since KK has increased the surface footprint of Goldstorm by a bunch in 2021 and 2022. When the surface footprint increases in terms of how many square km is covered by Goldstorm, to get a (very) ballpark number of gold ounces we can simply extrapolate a consistent set of results in terms of the system's depth across the larger length and width of the surface footprint.
Starting with the maiden resource estimate I was calculating the 564m mineralized drill width result as the depth of the system and about 0.743 square km as the surface footprint, giving me the tons of material involved using 2.81 for specific gravity. Using the .677g/t allowed me to convert to Au oz. giving me the 24.55 million oz. Au maiden resource.
To get the full 27.3 oz. AuEq I needed to adjust upward by about 9% to reflect the silver and copper minerals reported. But I'm really just interested in the Au at this point.
I am currently developing a few scenarios related to 2021 and 2022 drill results, depending on how much of the stepout distance is infilled. My lower boundary estimate is based on 1.19 square km of surface area, up from 0.743. That's a 60% increase, which would give me about 39.3 million oz. Au, or a total resource estimate of 42.8 AuEq when you add in the 9% for other minerals (if copper becomes are larger percentage of the total resource I'll need to modify this part of the calculation). I'm pretty comfortable with this number right now.
My middle of the road, assuming some more of the surface footprint is infilled would be a 1.29 square km surface area, which converts to about 42.62 million oz. Au and 46.45 oz. AuEq.
My high end scenario (lower probability but perhaps possible with a long drill season and well-placed results), is 1.529 square km (that's a lot of extra infill necessary), which puts my high end estimate at 50.52 oz. Au and 55.07 AuEq. If the estimate approaches this number I expect a much higher percentage would be in the Inferred category compared with the other two scenarios.
Other positives include the higher grades encountered this year and the number of continued hits into the 300H horizon, which is generally more shallow and easier to extract using an open pit approach, so I value that gold at a higher price in the ground.
When all of the results are in for the year I'll try to get more precise as to which scenario seems to have played out, and exactly where the new averages for Goldstorm sit with respect to Au g/t across the whole system and average width * grade for all of the holes.
Compared with the 170.8 million oz. Au in all categories at KSM, Treaty Creek is still smaller of course, but with higher grades of Au and only one major open pit to develop, I expect to see a much lower development cost (even compared to KSM's latest PFS showing three open pits for the Mitchell, East Mitchell and Sulphurets deposits), and also a comparable operating cost due to the proximity to infrastructure offset by the lower level of Cu and Ag credits that Tudor would get compared to Seabridge.
Overall I see Goldstorm as a lower risk project at its current size and attractive to large mining companies, or as a terrific first phase for KSM in a combined megaproject.
As Walter Storm did with Osisko, another option is to self-develop Goldstorm and sell an operating mine at a much higher price as Pretium and Osisko did with their assets.
Do your own DD. GLTA. Doug