RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Phew, am I ever relieved..."you had better be out before the dilution is announced." Again I believe a forward looking market has already baked in any dilution that has been forecasted into the existing share price.
Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving
BSdetector2016 wrote: You can try to play seasonality but you had better be out before the dilution is announced. That's the problem with this one: the debt/dilution overhang, and a likely dividend cut.
Quintessential1 wrote: Ok but it does not look like that is going to happen.
You are either going to have to walk away from this stock or find an upside within it.
Or short it, Up to you. You do you.
Personally it is approaching my buy threshold.
GLTY and the longs here.
BSdetector2016 wrote: Yes it's bad, and it is being done at precisely the wrong time. Have a look at the LT chart of AltaGas and you will see what management fixation on a bad acquisition can do to a company.
Time for Banskota to do his fiduciary duty and walk away from the Kentucky Power deal.
Quintessential1 wrote: Is the Kentucky deal bad?
IKentucky Power is bad yeah, but isn't that what good companies do?
Acquire the poorly utilized assets and bend them to their philosphy and profit making formula.
Once they become a good money making asset fold it in if looks core or sell it and acquire more?
If they sell the good assets at a decent profit I do not have a problem with that.
GLTA
BSdetector2016 wrote: You have a point about a forward looking market. The trouble is this market seems to be incredibly short-sighted. Add to that bad management decisions, interest rate debt pressure and a bad environment for Utilities. To me it means a sustained bear trend for AQN. Look what ALA did to itself and it didn't have rising rates to worry about. Banskota needs to kill the bad Kentucky deal and walk away. The alternative is a pile of more expensive debt and unknown share bloat due to dilution.
Quintessential1 wrote: Why Buy it now?
How about because a forward looking market should have already priced in 2023 dillution?
Maybe...LOL
I am looking here and if this is not the bottom is has to be approaching fast. Blink and you'll mis it.
Very few industries do well in recessions and therefore very few stocks. This could be one of them.
The big question is: Is the dividend sustainable or will it be cut?
GLTA
jx7000 wrote: BSdetector2016 wrote: They would be skewered if the issued shares at current price levels. I interpret this to mean that dilution is delayed until 2023. Why buy it now?
As a result of this transaction, the company does not intend to issue any equity through the remainder of 2022, and has ceased issuances under its at-the-market-equity (ATM). The company indicated it is evaluating further assets sales as a core part of its capital plan for 2023 and beyond.
That's right--why buy it now. About eight-or-so years ago I was invested in TransAlta Utilities because they used to pay a good div and seemed to be pretty stable, but then that changed with new management, etc. They've never recovered both stock price and div. I wonder if AQN is going "down" the same path for whatever reason.