RE:RE:Technicals Are Lagging IndicatorsI'm not sure that's true. Like stocks, does the price of oil not include a discounting mechanism? If markets are efficient than the price represents the present value of market expectations of the macro future.
But as always, market events "reprice" and "repostion" the markets forward expectations. Our job is to navigate between oversold and overbought conditions.
masfortuna wrote: Snowballer wrote: and serve their place as the probablities of a "future move" and can be pretty reliable but are never 100% and can even result in a complete miss.
Those who use technicals must be able to adapt even if it means they were wrong or the move wasn't as big etc. Patterns and support/resistance levels are either confirmed (and then obsolete) or rejected (and become invalidated) in varying time intervals. It is constantly evolving and the time intervals can be long term and short term.
For those who can't read a chart at all - oil has been in a downtrend since June 2022, has been in a broadening decending wedge since March 2022 with June 2022's high as a shortlived breakout and have sinced returned to the aforementioned wedge. Infact WTI hit its head on the upper resitance line at $93.64.
I HAVE NO IDEA WHERE OIL IS GOING. But I do know until we move above the 200DMA we are in a bearish trend. That needs to break and yes it could be very soon! Or it could not.
I just want confirmation. But righ now we are either gonna re-test the upper resistance or continue to float down.
Before this recent rally that has sold off a bit, both BTE and Oil were below the 200DMA. BTE has sinced climbed back over on the recent rally but it will be important for BTE to hold above.
I'm hoping for a broad stock market capitulation event where things sell off another 15%+ There's lots to be bearish about in terms of global financial stability and if that breaks down in meaningful ways WTI spot prices will be in for extreme moves.
What happened in the UK with the pension market is pretty serious. And there are mutlitple "cracks" around the world including China. Add in the obvious trend of Central Banks and OPEC+'s early move to insulate the oil price from what it percieves to be upcoming shocks to the market is probably bearish more than it is bullish imo. But the spring in oil supply/production is coiling and we could see new highs but even aggressie lows.
I have to agree with you Snowballer that "oil" has been trending lower since the late spring. The issue I have with the technical aanlysis on the price of oil is that it doesn't show the effects that the macro situation has on the oil market except AFTER the event in question. There are several positive catalysts on the horizon for oil in general and BTE in particular. Also, WE SHOULD NOT NEED OIL AT $90 for this to trade above $10. It is grossly undervalued as are ll oil companies. Your charts won't show this unless you move the charts back to 2010,