EIA Report Oct 13Todays EIA report included a reduction in estimated oil production in the lower 48
Further supporting the hypothesis that US oil production is in decline
The weekly estimate seems to be about 250,000 boe/day above the actual number that follows about 2 months later
This means current US oil production may now be at or below where it started the year
This is despite a lot more rigs drilling now than at the start of the year
Also note that the gas produced in the US has increased
This suggests lower 48 drillers are now drilling wells in lower tier areas that have a lower proportion of oil and higher proportion of gas
As mentioned elsewhere, we also know the productivity per new well is declining. This is dispite these wells being longer
Translation - the lower 48 producers are unable to replace declines
This has probably been going on for months, but was concealed by increasing the number of rigs drilling and using longer horizontals
Now it's starting to appear in the total estimated production numbers. In about 2 months it will show up in the actual production report for this period