RE:RE:RE:13$ range coming soonHey Red
I graduated from uni and started my career at the end of 1976. We bought our first house in 1979, sold it in late 1981, and moved to Calgary and bought our 2nd house. Our mortgage rate at that time was 20% so I do know the late 70s and 80s well.
I totally doubt we will see a repeat of that. I'm in the camp that the bank rate will get to 5-6% pushing us into recession, and then having rates back off.
As I've said many times, total returns don't really matter to us. It's all about the dividend income to pay our expenses. I feel very confident that 12 of our 16 stocks will not cut their divy. I doubt it on the other 4 (AQN, KEY, DIR.UN, NWH.UN) but you never know. We can easily live with a couple 50% divy cuts as we have 3x the dividend income we need to cover all our expenses.
Ciao
Sarge
Red_Deer wrote: Hey SARGE__You LIKELY ARE Correct__BUT Likely
""THIS TIME"" Could Easily BE a REPEATof the LAST SERIOUS INFLATION the World Saw.
This Being in the Late 70s and Much of the 80s__Probably BEFORE You Got into the Markets__and THUS Have NO Personal Experiences from this ERA eh ??
We SAW Olde Man TRUDEAU Actually Legislate WAGE and PRICE Controlls__of Course
AFTER SAYING that He Would NOT DO SO !!!
We ALSO Saw for a DECADE Very High INTEREST RATES__Such that Getting 12 to 15 %
on Long Term GICs Became ROUTINE__so WHY RISK Investing the Markets.
In the Early 80s the Big Bank PRIME RATE was 23% for a Short Period !!!!__and 1981 Canada
Savings Bonds SET the RATE @ 17% LOCKED IN For the Full 7 Year Term !!!!
Needless to say Financial Markets WERE DESTROYED by these Levels of INFLATIONARY
Interest Rates
The CDN Markets Were ESPECIALLY HARD HIT__as Our Markets were HUGELY OVER WEIGHT in the RESOURCE SECTORS__THUS Even Though the US Markets MADE a NICE RECOVERY by the Mid 80s on__Our CDN Markets CONTINUED to LAG TERRIBLY til the End
of the 80s.
Pretty SURE that NOBODY Would WANT to SEE a REPEAT of the 70/80s Experience which I Endured FULLY INVESTED in the Markets__BUT That IS STILL VERY MUCH UNKNOWN at the Early Stage of the Current Inflationary Period.
SargeX wrote: Hey Mike
Very interesting comment. I suspect there are quite a few people like you that got into the market at a bad time when stocks were rising like crazy. I suspect many will be bailing when they get a chance, taking their losses, and moving to GICs and such.
As a long term investor, I've seen this quite a few times but the market has bounced back each and every time.
This time may take a little longer with interest rates going up but mark my words, it will eventually be back to where it was in April. As an investor, you just need to be really patient.
Hang in there for now. AQN may go lower but I strongly believe it ill be back in the $18-20 range within 3 years and you will collect a nice >6.5% divy along the way.
Ciao
Sarge
mikes3bikes wrote: Getting involved in stocks is the worst thing I've done.